Four Scenarios for the Post-Corona Time
With a large series, the investor magazine “Effecten-Spiegel” had addressed so-called megatrends in 2019. But what remains of these profound societal and economic developments after the Corona pandemic? In its current issue, author and board member Susanne Schäffer refers to an interesting analysis that scientists at the Future Institute in Frankfurt am Main have created with the following question: How will we live and do business after the pandemic? In its current white paper, the institute describes four possible scenarios of how the Corona crisis can change the world
– in societal and economic terms.
Fears of the future are booming
The pandemic raises many questions. Nobody knows exactly where the journey is going and what the future will look like afterwards. But one thing is clear: After the Corona crisis, nothing is as it once was. However, the scientists say, the possible consequences of the pandemic can be estimated using the methods and tools of trend and future research. Using four scenarios, the Future Institute describes what our future could look like in the medium term after the pandemic. These are total isolation, system crash, neo-tribes, and adaptation.
Scenarios help to understand the future
In the “total isolation”, the institute formulates, the shutdown has become normal. Scanning wrist chips when entering subways and exchanging health data before the first date are as normal as lengthy visa procedures for trips abroad. Basic care is guaranteed by trade agreements between individual states – no more.
In the second scenario, the “system crash”, the world can no longer get out of its daze. Nationalistic interests instead of globalization, everyone is out for themselves. Drastic measures even for the smallest spreads are the result. Nobody believes in international cooperation anymore. The world nervously wobbles into the future.
Are the negative post-Corona scenarios likely?
In the “Neo-Tribes” scenario, on the other hand, the globalized society has developed back more strongly towards local structures. Regional products are trump, flanked by a return to family, house, and yard. Sustainability and we-culture, thought locally instead of globally.
In the “Adaptation” scenario, the world emerges stronger from the crisis. We have learned to adapt better and deal more flexibly with changes. What we should expect according to Professor Hans-Christian Riekhof: the performance of health systems, the global tracking of epidemic courses, the much faster international sharing of valid data on epidemics, the independent benchmarking of national health strategies are changes that are likely and that strengthen our society.
Compare the scenarios with reality in a few years
Professor Riekhof considers this model of possible scenarios to be very helpful in that it brings together and interprets the existing societal and political currents based on the dimensions of optimistic vs. pessimistic and global/networked vs. local/isolated. “Even heads of state can be classified in their basic orientations in this grid. But the pressing core question is: which scenario is most likely? We should take a sober look back in a few years.”
Anti-Fragility: New strengths emerge in crises
If you have read books like Hans Rosling’s Factfulness or the works of Gregg Easterbrook, then it is difficult to take the pessimistic perspective. If you evaluate the prosperity effects of globalization from a distance, then a world without global networking is simply unimaginable, says Riekhof. He refers to Nicholas Taleb, who is completely right that systems (and societies) become anti-fragile and thus more resilient when they are shaken by crises like Corona. “The adaptation scenario seems to me to be the only likely one – even if the other scenarios may be better marketed in the media.”
The matrix for the four scenarios
Graphic/Matrix: Future Institute
Sources
Effecten-Spiegel No. 19, 07.05.2020, page 8
Future Institute (with details on the topic and the analyses):
https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/artikel/wirtschaft-nach-corona-wochen-der-weichenstellung/
https://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/artikel/der-corona-effekt-4-zukunftsszenarien/
Photo: Martin Sanchez/Unsplash
